An assessment of the influence of the Islamic movement in the Balkan area

Two faces of the Balkan

Regional overview and scientific researches confirmed very big differences between two kind of territory on the Balkan.  On the territories covered less or more with Muslims as inhabitants really exist certain risk of both - present or future Islamist terrorism. On the other kind of territories over the Balkan, it means on the territories covered with Christian inhabitants, don't exist any kind of terrorism threats at all.

For example, Center for Security Studies and Terrorism Research in Serbia and Montenegro just finished the largest research regarding the security of Belgrade compared with security of twenty big cities of the world.

    The following results of this public opinion research may be significant for the participants of this conference. The survey is programmed to include opinions of nearly 2000 person's interviewed - foreigners, security experts and citizens of Belgrade.

    So far, citizens from 21 countries currently residing in Belgrade have been interviewed for the purposes of this research. Categories of these interviewees range from high diplomatic officials residing in Belgrade for a long time to the tourists. All categories evaluated the general level of security in Belgrade very highly. As many as 82,1% of them stated that Belgrade is a safe city, whereas only 1,8% stated the opposite.

    According to the opinion of the foreign interviewees only 3 cities – Stockholm, London and Berlin – are more secure than Belgrade, and Belgrade is estimated to be safer than Athens, Rome, Paris, New York, Moscow, Zagreb and 16 other big cities of the world whose safety was tested in this survey, included Jerusalem and Baghdad.

    This research showed that not one of the persons questioned believed that there were any terrorist organizations originating from or conducting their actions on the territory of Belgrade. Therefore, it cannot be considered to propose any kind of threat to other big cities in that sense.

That is one kind of community in Serbia and Balkan. The other one is not so safe and belongs every day more to the world of Islamist influence.        

Balkan became new base of Islamist terrorism?

Not recently Balkan became the base of the significant number of extremist Islamist organizations included Islamist terrorist organizations as

well. Native European Islamic world from Turkey until Bosnia even before

September, 11th, was in last ten years every day more religious, more radicals and more closely connected with the extremist Moslems over the world. The territory of former Yugoslavia is especially attractive for Islamist

terrorism. That is the very important sphere of influence of several

Intelligence services of Islamic countries as well.

If we have on mind mujahedin and Al Qaeda presence in Bosnia and

Herzegovina, and the tens of thousands former military and paramilitary fighters in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia (Kosovo and Metohia), FRY Macedonia and Albania who are Muslims by tradition and connected with Arabian and Chechenian terrorists, it is not hard to describe potential terrorist threat as significant.

    But, to be realistic, Balkan is at the moment more logistic and operative base for international Islamist terrorism then "New, European  Afghanistan".

Potential critical operative base of Islamist terrorism over the Balkan are primarily Turkey, and in Serbia and Montenegro : South of Serbia, Sandzak ( parts of Serbia and Montenegro), Kosovo and Metohia, and from other confederation Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The biggest terrorist threats for Europe are on the Balkan most radical Islamist organizations from Turkey and from former Yugoslavia as well as logistic partner of international terrorism.

Mostly, the members of Islamist  extremist and terrorist organizations in Serbia and Montenegro basically belong to one of three groups. The first and smallest group is associated with Al Qaeda. The second, associated with Iranian secret service , started its impact in this area through help to Bosnian Muslims 15 years ago, and later spread its influence to Sandzak (Raska) and Kosovo and Metohia. The third group is still forming on Kosovo and Sandzak, and it is part of negative response of the Islamist world to foreign military action in Iraq. This third group is acting in more extremists than terrorist manner, but in time it is presumed to grow into terrorism, which will primarily target everything connected to USA and their allies. Considering the fact that Serbia and Montenegro positioned itself like Greece - as an ally to the USA, they will probably be once a target of this sort of terrorism. All groups are closely connected with the world of organized crime.

 The estimated number of extremist Islamist organizations on the Balkans is around several dozens, and on the territory of former Yugoslavia they operate mostly in Bosnia, Sandzak and Kosovo and Macedonia. The estimated number of terrorists is several thousands, but just a few of them direct operations of international terrorist organizations. Considering the fact that operational readiness of Islamist terrorist organizations is increasing everywhere around the world, more intensive activities of Turkish, Albanian and Bosnjak terrorists in the time of Olympic Games  are to be expected with certainty.

According to Serbia and Montenegro minister of minority and human rights Rasim Ljajic, there is no possibility for escalation of conflict in Sandzak and the whole region. His opinion is that isolated incidents of lower intensity are possible, especially at sport events, but that there is no potential for crisis that could lead to higher intensity of violence. To be true, the fact is that there was no escalation of conflict in Sandzak during the war in Bosnia or during the conflict in Kosovo, but significant recent change in the political atmosphere in Sandzak, stands not in favor of ministries opinion.

At the moment one of the most active terrorist organizations over the Balkan is Albanian National Army (ANA). Albanian National Army is terrorist formation consisting of three different kinds of activists. The first are domestic people from south of Serbia and FRY Macedonia, mostly members of former Liberation Army of Presevo, Bujanovac and Medvedja, which is quite weakened in conflict with security forces of Serbia . The second are members of former Kosovo Liberation Army, and the third are some foreign terrorists. The influence of Al Qaeda is biggest in this third group.

Center of ANA, according to intelligence is located in northern Albania, and its unofficial, bur real leader is citizen of Albania Hidaet Beciri. Official leader is citizen of Serbia Sefket Musliu, at moment in prison. Everything what we can pronounce as terrorism that is in the last several years happening in FRY Macedonia, Kosovo and Southern Serbia is coordinated from that center. Activities of ANA are noticed in Western Macedonia and Kosovo, on the border with Southern Serbia. According to Minister Ljajic ANA is not as strong as Liberation Army of Presevo, Bujanovac and Medvedja was several years ago. The circumstances have changed – the border between Kosovo and south Serbia is not as porous as it was, there is not as much weapon in south of Serbia as it was two years ago, and Albanian terrorists can't get as much support from the West as they used to have. But, they faund new, Islamist supporters. In Serbian official's opinion, besides, considering forthcoming talks between authorities in Belgrade and Albanian representatives in Kosovo institutions, it is not probable that terrorist attacks will intensify. It is the fact that in southern Serbia Albanians entered government structures, but the situation can be returned to the one that was present several years ago.

On Kosovo the non-Muslim people newly faced big waves of political violence. Every week some of Serbian people were killed from Islamic Albanian extremists. Albanian extremists are practically Islamist extremists . Just in last three years 142 Christian churches on Kosovo and Metohia are total destroyed through setting of an explosive. One month ago, in March, Albanian extremists destroyed more then 30 Christian churches on Kosovo just for one day. Ethnical cleansing for 24 hours banished  thousand of the Serbs. They persist just in several towns. Is it the sign of parallel community - community without Christians and their religious buildings or not ? Attacks on remaining member of Serbian minority in Kosovo are likely to continue, and they will aim at banishing as many Christians as possible from this area.

There is several reason why ANA probably will not directly take part in eventual terrorist attack on Olympic Games. First, until now, one of the major characteristics of ANA is her local activity. This way of combat allowed Kosovo Liberation Army to operate successfully at Kosovo and Metohia – they were not seen by international community as terrorists, because they were operating strictly in Kosovo and Metohia and not in  the other parts of  Serbia. Because they operated exclusively in Kosovo and Metohia, the international community as guerilla treated Kosovo Liberation Army. ANA has the same strategy – they operate strictly in south Serbia, and treat themselves as an army, which is giving them greater significance in the eyes of international community. This ANA strategy is good for authorities in Belgrade, because there is no serious risk of terrorist attacks and civil victims in Belgrade and other cities in Serbia, but on the other hand this situation may lead to necessity of negotiations with representatives of ANA as a political factor, especially if international factor sees them as one. The goal of this terrorist organization, as a national strategy of Albanian terrorism, is creating of Great Albania, but this is not official language of Tirana and Pristine anymore, as it is not politically popular on the West. Instead, disguised as concern for rights of Albanian communities, they are trying to control territories where Albanians live.

Every strengthen the connection between ANA and others terrorist organizations of Albanians can produce very fast very big risk of internationalization of ANAs activities and consequently the risk for Europe.

Who is the threat ?

Gregory Copley, editor of respectful Defense and Foreign Affairs journal, in his recent analysis states the connections of Albanian terrorists with Al Qaeda, as well as activities of Albanian activities in Kosovo and south Serbia as a single front. He claims that one of the leaders of Kosovo Protection Corpus Agim Cheku was closely connected with Muhammad Al-Zawahiri, who was in command of special operations of Kosovo Liberation Army. Muhammad al Zavahiri is, according to Copley, brother of person number two in Al Qaeda, Ayman Al-Zawahiri and the leader of Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Cheku and KLA kept strong relations with Al Qaeda and Iran clerical leadership that provided significant resources for KLA from Iran National Guard Corpus. Copley quotes American general Jerry Blake, commander of USA forces in Kosovo, who said on August 18, 2003 in Bondsteel base that KFOR peace forces "are aware of the activities of extremist organizations in Kosovo who are trying to expand the violence into neighbor countries" and that those who are make problems should be "identified, caught and punished".

         In the Sandzak, the part of Serbia situated between  Kosovo and Bosnia with Moslems majority very fast grow up Islamist extremism. In Sandzak are newly established two universities. One of them with the money from Saudi Arabia and certainly backed from one or more Arabian Secret services. The rector is khoja. This university is full controlled from Wahabi sect of Islam as very militant extremists and it is the most important legitimate center of Islamic extremism on the Balkan. From the great importance for the risk assessment is the fact that Muslims from Sandzak are traditionally through smuggling best connected with the organized crime circles in Turkey.  The other fact that every day a lot of weapons come illegal from Bosnia to Sandzak aloud us not to be too much optimistic regarding the future situation in the regions. International community looks not too much interested in Islamist extremism in Serbia and Montenegro included Kosovo. For their strengthen Islamist extremist practically use a bad political legacy of Serbia and weakness of Serbian State.

One of the problems of counter terrorism combat in Serbia and Montenegro is non-existing national strategy for fighting against terrorism. Both, police and army of Serbia and Montenegro have conter-terrorism manpower that is one of the most qualified in the region. However, they are facing poverty and international approach is necessary, as well as creating of regional special antiterrorist formation that will consist of highly competent men. In those units should be primarily included members of the Serbian police and army who already have some experience in fighting Islamist terrorism. In favor of more intensive antiterrorist actions in the region is the fact that administration of US president George Bush, which pronounced fighting against terrorism to be its major goal in foreign politics, officially put Kosovo and Metohia on a list of territories where Islamist  terrorist, primarily Al Qaeda, operate.

To prevent terrorist attacks in Europe it is necessary to create anti terrorist network between EU and Balkan countries and to take a lot of  specific contra-terrorist measures.